Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 12 2021 - 00Z Sat Jun 19 2021

Over the course of the period guidance suggests that high pressure
will evolve in shape/strength and gradually progress from
northwest of the state into the East Pacific in response to
mid-latitude systems.  The end result will be generally moderate
trades that focus the majority of showers over windward and
mountain areas while some other locations could also see rainfall
at times.  Consensus shows precipitable water values below
climatology from late this week into early next week.  Around
Tuesday-Wednesday a band of moisture/rainfall associated with a
weakening front may get close to the northwestern islands.  The
rest of the state should also see a gradual increase of moisture
continuing into late week.  The trends for moisture as well as the
eventual weakening/departure of an upper ridge suggest a moderate
increase of rainfall over the course of next week.  Late next week
the 18Z/00Z GFS runs extend a central Pacific system farther
southeast than other guidance including the 00Z GEFS mean.  Thus
the GFS weakens the surface gradient compared to consensus, so
preference would be for the GEFS mean and other non-GFS solutions
at that time.  

Rausch