Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 19 2021 - 00Z Mon Jul 26 2021

Guidance continues to show strong high pressure to the
north/northwest of the state supporting brisk to strong trades for
most of next week, with highest wind speeds likely to be early in
the week.  Showers will maintain a windward/mountain focus with
only modest amounts of rain straying into leeward locales at
times.  Upper ridging that builds in behind a departing upper
low/inverted trough should promote a period of relatively lighter
rainfall early in the week.  After midweek expect some increase of
moisture originally associated with Felicia and Guillermo but with
uncertainty over specifics, especially relative to the latter
system.  There is decent agreement and continuity that the core of
greatest deep moisture associated with Felicia will pass to the
south of the state and brush the Big Island and vicinity with
somewhat higher precipitable water values around Thursday-Friday. 
However the spread is much greater for Guillermo's moisture that
is next.  The 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF mean are fastest and bring their
relative maxima for precipitable water into the state by Sunday. 
The GFS/GEFS mean and CMC remain slower than the ECMWF/ECMWF mean
and suggest a farther northward path of greatest moisture.  Would
recommend an intermediate solution while awaiting further
trends/improved clustering.

Rausch