Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 13 2021 - 00Z Mon Sep 20 2021

A strong upper high centered near the Dateline should keep
mid-level heights near to below normal across Hawaii for at least
the first half of next week. An upper low east of the islands will
move back west though most of the guidance suggests it should stay
just to the north of Hawaii as it drifts through the region during
the middle of the week. Modest trades through the period will
support generally light to perhaps moderate windward and mauka
showers as precipitable water values waver near 1.25 inches.
Southerly flow west of a ridge axis to the east of the state may
try to direct higher PW air towards the western islands around
Thursday-Friday. Some more enhanced precipitation may impact
Hawaii later next week with the increased moisture, but both the
ECMWF and GFS continue to suggest the highest QPF should stay west
of the main islands.

Santorelli