Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Fri Oct 08 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 09 2021 - 00Z Sat Oct 16 2021

Models and ensembles agree that a series of mid-latitude surface
highs will maintain brisk to strong trades through the period. 
Winds may be strongest through the weekend followed by a slight
moderation.  Rainfall will focus over windward/mountain terrain
with more scattered activity reaching leeward locales.  There will
be noticeable trends in rainfall intensity over the course of the
period.  Showers will be relatively lighter from late this week
into the weekend with precipitable water values holding below
climatology.  Then heavier rainfall will be possible from around
Sunday or Monday into Tuesday as an area of enhanced moisture
(precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches or so) moves across
the islands, followed by a lighter trend mid-late week as moisture
settles back below climatology.  Guidance suggests the decrease in
moisture will have a more pronounced effect on rainfall trends
than the steady but modest decrease in heights aloft.    

Rausch