Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Sat Oct 09 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 10 2021 - 00Z Sun Oct 17 2021

Today's guidance continues to show that a series of surface highs
north of the state will maintain fairly strong trades through most
of the forecast period.  There is a general consensus that the
strongest winds will extend through the weekend with only modest
weakening during the first half of next week.  Models/means
suggest a little more slackening of the pressure gradient late in
the week, which could bring winds down to moderate-brisk levels. 
Rainfall will focus over windward/mountain terrain with scattered
activity sometimes reaching leeward areas.  There is still
reasonable consensus for below average precipitable water values
and rainfall in the lighter half of the spectrum through the
weekend, followed by heavier showers as an area of greater deep
moisture (precipitable water values of 1.5-2.0 inches) passes
through from around late Monday through Tuesday/Tuesday night.  A
weakness aloft to the southwest of an upper low may also help to
enhance rainfall.  Moisture will likely decrease on Wednesday with
the rest of the week seeing precipitable water values settle to
moderately below normal values and most rainfall in the
light-moderate range.

Rausch