Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 11 2021 - 00Z Mon Oct 18 2021

Latest models and ensembles maintain good agreement and continuity
in the general forecast through the next seven days but exhibit
some differences for finer details.  A series of mid-latitude
highs will maintain trades through the period.  Each high should
be somewhat weaker than its predecessor, so the strongest winds
will be this weekend followed by just slightly weaker brisk/strong
winds during the first part of the week, and then a somewhat more
noticeable trend toward moderate trades by next weekend. 
Windward/mountain showers, which will occasionally stray to
leeward locales, will likely trend heavier around late Monday
through early Wednesday as an area of enhanced moisture
(precipitable water values around 1.5-2.0 inches or so) moves over
the state.  Some differences persist in exactly how high the PWATs
reach as the 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF mean are somewhat higher than the
00Z GFS/GEFS mean.  After early Wednesday expect rainfall to
become lighter as the guidance consensus generally shows a gradual
decrease of moisture.  This decrease is more noticeable in the
GEFS/ECMWF means versus the 00Z ECMWF/GFS that hold onto a little
more moisture over and near the Big Island.

Rausch