Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 16 2021 - 00Z Sat Oct 23 2021

The latest models and ensembles provide reasonable agreement and
forecast continuity for the overall pattern over the upcoming
week.  Guidance continues to show a weak elongated upper
trough/shear axis developing over or just north of the state
through the weekend.  Still the lingering upper weakness could
provide a little modest enhancement to rainfall at times.  The
trades are expected to trend slightly lighter with time as one
mid-latitude front late this week and then a second front reaching
farther south close to the islands by midweek weaken surface
ridging to the north of the state.  Consensus shows precipitable
water values settling to below climatology through a majority of
the period, likely keeping windward-favored showers lighter in
intensity.  Sufficient weakening of the trades as well as moisture
along the front approaching from the north could alter the
focus/distribution of rainfall from the typical trade pattern by
the Wednesday to Thursday time period.

Hamrick