Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 17 2021 - 00Z Sun Oct 24 2021

Surface high pressure centered near 40 degrees north will slide
east this weekend, with a col developing within this ridge early
in the week as a strong storm system passes well to the north with
a weakening cold front approaching a few hundred miles north of
the Islands, and a second front/trough following behind it for
mid-week.  The surface high is expected to rebuild near 30-35
degrees north for the end of the week.  Aloft, a weak upper level
disturbance will likely track westward across the state through
Monday, and potentially another weak upper feature passing south
of the state by Friday.

The features noted above are not expected to have much of an
impact in terms of rainfall, with mainly dry conditions for
leeward areas and trade wind showers for east-facing terrain. 
Steady easterly trades through the weekend are expected to abate
some by Tuesday/Wednesday as the col develops and the pressure
gradient weakens, and then increase again by next Friday/Saturday
as the surface high becomes more firmly established. 

Hamrick