Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Valid 00Z Fri Oct 22 2021 - 00Z Fri Oct 29 2021 Models and ensembles reasonably agree that a stalling and weakening front will work toward the islands from the north in the short term, resulting in weaker trade flow and perhaps some pooled moisture. Drier air re-establishes across much of the state Friday into early next week in a more stable/ridgy upper pattern with a limited windward terrain shower focus as high pressure builds and bridges to the north of the islands. There is better than average guidance signal into longer time frames that suggests that upstream upper ridge amplification over the west-central Pacific may allow a rounding upper trough then dig southeastward along with a convection/moisture focusing cold front toward the islands mid-later next week that would also act to disrupt trades. Schichtel