Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EST Mon Nov 08 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 09 2021 - 00Z Tue Nov 16 2021

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that surface high pressure
bridged to the north of the state should favor moderate trades
over the next couple of days in a pattern with limited windward
terrain showers under upper ridging. Trades are expected to ease
through midweek as the supporting surface high shifts eastward to
the eastern Pacific. The upper ridge over the state will meanwhile
gradually weaken in response to approaching upper trough energy to
the northwest of the state that should amplify later week as
reinforced by a series of impulses set to dig to the lee of an
amplified upstream ridge over mid-latitudes of the western
Pacific. This scenario would drive a well defined cold front
southeastward toward the islands into the weekend/early next week
and lead wind flow shift in response may bring deeper shower
fueling moisture back up into the state from the ITCZ.

Schichtel