Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EST Tue Nov 16 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 17 2021 - 00Z Wed Nov 24 2021

Through midweek expect a lingering surface trough to keep winds
fairly light over the state, while precipitable water values
remain above climatology (and highest over eastern areas).  The
weak winds will lead to more sea/land breeze focus for any showers
while rising heights aloft should promote a gradual lighter trend
for rainfall.  Guidance remains agreeable and consistent in
depicting sufficient high pressure to the north and northeast of
the islands to establish light to moderate trade flow from
Thursday into Saturday, leading to greater windward rainfall
focus.  Amounts should be on the light side though.  Models have
diverged a bit for the front approaching but likely not reaching
the northwestern islands around Sunday.  However the common theme
is that any disruption of trades should be brief and trailing high
pressure passing by to the north will strengthen the trades
Monday-Tuesday.  A pocket of enhanced moisture may cross at least
parts of the state from east to west during the weekend, which
could increase rainfall modestly, and then a drier trend should
take place early next week.  Over the past day the models have
trended weaker/more sheared with any shortwave energy reaching the
area--providing some increase in confidence for the drier trend.

Rausch