Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 304 AM EST Wed Nov 17 2021 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 18 2021 - 00Z Thu Nov 25 2021 Expect a return to more typical trade flow during the latter half of the week as some surface ridging develops to the north/northeast of the state and the surface trough that has been persisting over the main islands finally dissipates or departs. In addition to the transition from sea/land breeze shower focus to windward/mountain locations, rainfall amounts should gradually decrease as precipitable water values decline. During the weekend guidance has returned to reasonable agreement for the front likely to approach but not reach the state. This front could still get close enough to disrupt trades very briefly over western areas. Trailing high pressure tracking north of the islands on Sunday and continuing into the eastern Pacific thereafter will support stronger trades during the first half of next week. From the weekend into next week there are a couple guidance discrepancies to note. Consensus had been suggesting that a pocket of moderately higher moisture would pass through the area during the weekend, potentially increasing rainfall. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF have both adjusted to keeping this moisture farther south, in contrast to the 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF means that still bring the northern periphery of this moisture across the state. For now would recommend an intermediate solution between the models/means while awaiting either confirmation or reversal of the GFS/ECMWF changes. After Sunday the models diverge with details of upper flow over/north of the state. The 00Z GFS becomes the strongest and farthest southwest with its upper ridge while the 00Z CMC forms a compact upper low just north of the islands early in the week. The ECMWF and latest ensemble means offer the most comparable and higher probability solutions. Rausch