Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 23 2021 - 00Z Tue Nov 30 2021

A fairly typical trade wind pattern should continue this week as
high pressure prevails to the north of the state. This would
support some occasional and light windward/mountain focus for
showers, with minor uptick in activity associated with a couple
regions of higher moisture trying to move through the region
around mid week. The GFS shows one such region of higher moisture
may come far enough north to bring more widespread showers into
southern parts of the Big Island around Thursday-Friday, but the
ECMWF keeps the best moisture well to the south. Otherwise, much
of Hawaii should remain within a dry and stable pattern over the
next week. Overall, the guidance and ensembles show very good
agreement on the large scale pattern, with some lingering
uncertainties in the details and timing of systems well to the
north of Hawaii.

Santorelli