Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Tue Nov 23 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 24 2021 - 00Z Wed Dec 01 2021

A typical and breezy trade wind pattern should continue into the
weekend as high pressure prevails to the north and east of the
state. This would support some occasional and light
windward/mountain focus for showers. Latest guidance suggests some
trade wind disruption/weakening is possible by Sunday as a trough
digs south and east of the state although the associated surface
cold front should stay well north of Hawaii, so sensible weather
impacts should be limited. This may also drag ITCZ moisture
northward which could increase showers across southern parts of
the Big Island late week, but models disagree with the degree of
moisture into the region. Breezy trade winds should return by
early next week as high pressure once again builds in to the
north. The latest models and ensembles show generally good
agreement on the overall pattern through the next seven days with
mainly smaller scale timing and detail differences needing to be
resolved.

Santorelli