Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 AM EST Wed Nov 24 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 25 2021 - 00Z Thu Dec 02 2021

A typical and breezy trade wind pattern should continue into the
weekend as high pressure prevails to the north and east of the
state. This would support some occasional and light
windward/mountain focus for showers. Latest guidance suggests some
trade wind disruption/weakening is possible by Sunday as a trough
digs south and east of the state although the associated surface
cold front should stay to the north of Hawaii, so sensible weather
impacts should be limited. A possible cutoff low from this trough
may bring higher moisture content towards the Big Island, with a
possible increase in shower activity across southern/eastern parts
of the island. Models show some uncertainty in how much of this
higher moisture air makes it into Hawaii, with the GFS the most
bullish at this point. Breezy trade winds should return by early
next week as high pressure once again builds in to the north and
the upper low settles to the southeast of the state.

Santorelli