Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 237 AM EST Thu Nov 25 2021 Valid 00Z Fri Nov 26 2021 - 00Z Fri Dec 03 2021 A typical and breezy trade wind pattern should continue into the weekend as high pressure prevails to the north and east of the state. This would support some occasional and light windward/mountain focus for showers. Latest guidance suggests some trade wind disruption/weakening is possible by Sunday as a trough digs south and east of the state although the associated surface cold front should stay to the north of Hawaii, so sensible weather impacts should be limited. Breezy trade winds should return by the middle of next week as high pressure again builds in to the north and a cutoff low settles to the east of Hawaii. Models suggest this low should bring higher moisture content towards the state, with a possible increase in shower activity across parts of mainly the Big Island and Maui. Models show some uncertainty in the placement of this low and how much of this higher moisture air makes it into Hawaii, with the 00z ECMWF bringing the low closest to or even over the islands signaling moderate to locally heavy rainfall for some places. The ensemble means right now are clustered east of the Hawaii thus supporting a somewhat drier scenario than the ECMWF, more in line with the GFS. Santorelli