Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 AM EST Sun Nov 28 2021

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 29 2021 - 00Z Mon Dec 6 2021

The upper level trough axis that is initially north of Hawaii is
forecast to evolve into a closed low just east of the Big Island
by Monday morning, and then slowly drift westward through
Thursday, accompanied by an inverted surface trough.  This low
should become absorbed by another upper trough dropping
southeastward from the North Pacific by the end of the week.  The
ECENS is farther west than the GEFS mean by next weekend regarding
the placement of this next trough. 

In terms of sensible weather, prospects for more organized
rainfall increase by Tuesday and lasting through Thursday as the
disturbance lingers across the region.  A second round of
unsettled weather is likely by next weekend as the second trough
advects copious tropical moisture northward across the state ahead
of the cold front.  Variable trades are expected through much of
the upcoming week, with gusty northerly winds across the western
Islands behind the front by next weekend.

Hamrick