Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 30 2021 - 00Z Tue Dec 7 2021

The upper level low that is initially east of the Big Island is
forecast to slowly drift westward through Thursday, accompanied by
an inverted surface trough.  This low should become absorbed by
another upper trough dropping southeastward from the North Pacific
by the end of the week.  The ECENS is slightly farther west than
the GEFS mean by next weekend regarding the placement of this next
trough.  There is some hint in the guidance that this trough may
form a cut-off low by early next week over the state, which would
result in a rather unsettled weather pattern.

In terms of sensible weather, prospects for more organized
rainfall increase by Tuesday night and lasting through Thursday as
the disturbance lingers across the region, mainly for the eastern
most Islands.  A second and more substantial round of unsettled
weather is likely by next weekend as the second trough advects
copious tropical moisture northward across the state ahead of the
cold front.  Variable trades are expected through much of the
upcoming week, with gusty northerly winds across the western
Islands behind the front by next weekend.

Hamrick