Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 223 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021 Valid 00Z Wed Dec 1 2021 - 00Z Wed Dec 8 2021 The upper level low that is initially south of the Big Island is forecast to remain nearly in place through Thursday, accompanied by an inverted surface trough. This low should become absorbed by another and much stronger upper trough dropping southeastward from the North Pacific by Thursday night. There is good agreement among the ensemble means with this incoming trough and its magnitude, with both the GEFS and ECENS indicating a cut-off low developing by early Monday, with a surface low just north of the Islands. In terms of sensible weather, periods of rain are expected through Thursday as the disturbance lingers across the region, mainly for the eastern most Islands. More substantial rainfall is likely by next weekend and into early next week as the synoptic scale trough advects copious tropical moisture northward across the state ahead of the cold front. The potential exists for several inches of rainfall for the Saturday-Tuesday time period. Hamrick