Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 AM EST Thu Dec 16 2021

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 17 2021 - 00Z Fri Dec 24 2021

...Wet pattern to form over the islands...

Upper ridging is eroding over the state with advent of unsettling
impulses aloft. This should allow for some showers/downpours over
the next couple of days. Well clustered solutions from the models
and ensembles then indicate that deeper shower fueling tropical
moisture will feed into the islands this weekend into next week as
trades back to the southeast in response to a much more amplified
upper trough/closed low set to dig just to the northwest then west
of the islands. A favored guidance composite ushers in potential
for a wetter period with the slow moving and weakening upper
trough/low sliding just to the south of the islands by next
midweek.

Schichtel