Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 2 2022 - 00Z Sun Jan 9 2022

A pair of surface lows west of the state near 170W are forecast to
lift north with a convergence zone situated just north of the
state.  This zone will be the focus for enhanced rainfall through
the weekend, and both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the heaviest
rainfall should be about 100-200 miles offshore, and any deviation
south will significantly increase rainfall chances. 

By early next week, a col is expected in the subtropical ridge
axis at the surface over the western Islands, and this will tend
to lessen the trades and allow for more sea breeze based showers
through the middle of the week.  With a broad upper trough
remaining in place, the coverage of showers will likely be higher
than usual.

Hamrick