Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 22 2022 - 00Z Sat Jan 29 2022

Latest guidance agrees well for the overall pattern through most
of the period, though some differences in moisture emerge by late
next week.  A front initially northwest of the state will drop
into the main islands by the weekend and then begin to dissipate. 
Drier air behind the front will push into the area from the
northeast, bringing precipitable water values to well below
climatology around late Sunday-Monday.  Some moisture around the
western periphery of a mean trough/upper low east of the state may
reach the area Tuesday through Wednesday or Thursday, likely
increasing rainfall somewhat compared to early in the week but not
to an extreme degree.  Another weakening front may reach the area
as well.  By next Friday the 00Z ECMWF brings in more moisture
from the east compared to its previous run as well as other models
and means, so for now would favor leaning away from the 00Z ECMWF
scenario.  Expect trades to become somewhat stronger (with more
windward/mountain shower focus) heading into the weekend and then
persist, as one surface high tracking north of the state leaves
behind some residual ridging and then another high tracking to the
north of the area around midweek will extend a ridge southwestward
as it reaches the eastern Pacific.

Rausch