Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 23 2022 - 00Z Sun Jan 30 2022

Today's guidance generally agrees upon several days of trade flow
that will focus showers over windward/mountain locations, but with
fairly light amounts given below-climatology precipitable water
values for most of the period.  A band of moisture associated with
a dissipating front will pass through from north to south on
Saturday, followed by drier air moving in Sunday-Monday.  Moisture
originating from an area of low pressure well east of the state
may reach the islands by Tuesday-Wednesday.  The 00Z ECMWF shows
higher precipitable water values with this area of moisture versus
the 00Z GFS and 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF means, so the ECMWF scenario
seems to have lower probability at this time.  By next Saturday
the ECMWF shows another area of moisture reaching into the Big
Island and vicinity, and again with not much support from other
guidance.  On the other hand the 00Z GFS is farthest east with
moisture ahead of a front that approaches from the northwest but
likely does not reach the main islands.  Another front between the
early/late-period ones should stay just north of the state around
midweek.  

Rausch