Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EST Fri Feb 11 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 12 2022 - 00Z Sat Feb 19 2022

Through the end of this week, a weak upper-level ridge will slowly
weaken overtop Hawaii while a cold front dissipates north of the
state, producing relatively dry weather and fairly weak winds at
the surface dominated by land and sea breezes. By early next week,
an upper-level cutoff low is forecast to drop southward to the
east of Hawaii, and then drift toward the Big Island and persist
but gradually weaken through much of next week. This feature could
draw moisture northward somewhat and produce enhanced trade wind
showers across favored terrain, but model guidance does not show
too much increase in rainfall totals until the latter part of next
week when moisture anomalies increase. This increase in
precipitable water anomalies and rainfall is shown by the ECWMF
guidance suite more than the GFS suite at this point, so this will
continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
strengthening to the north of the state by the latter part of next
week will lead to moderate to strong trade winds.

Tate