Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 13 2022 - 00Z Sun Feb 20 2022

A relatively dry airmass is in place for Hawaii to end the week,
while trade winds are expected to strengthen as high pressure is
in place north of the islands. By early next week, an upper-level
cutoff low is forecast to drop southward to the east of Hawaii,
and then drift toward the Big Island and persist but gradually
weaken through much of next week. This feature could draw moisture
northward somewhat as well as increase instability, so showers
over favored terrain and possibly some thunderstorms particularly
for the Big Island are possible. Model guidance does not show too
much increase in rainfall totals until the latter part of next
week when moisture anomalies increase. The ECMWF guidance suite
continues to show a bigger increase in precipitable water
anomalies and rainfall compared to the GFS suite, so this will
continue to be monitored. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
strengthening to the north of the state by the latter part of next
week will lead to moderate to strong trade winds.

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