Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 334 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 14 2022 - 00Z Mon Feb 21 2022 For the early part of the week, a relatively dry airmass will remain in place, while trade winds continue at moderate levels as high pressure at the surface is in place north of the islands. In the upper levels, a cutoff low is forecast to drop southward to the east of Hawaii, and then drift toward the Big Island and persist but gradually weaken through much of this week. This feature could draw moisture northward somewhat as well as increase instability, so showers over favored terrain and possibly some thunderstorms particularly for the Big Island are possible. Model guidance does not show too much increase in rainfall totals until the latter part of next week when moisture anomalies increase, as shown by most models now. Common windward and mountain areas should receive the bulk of the rainfall but some could spill into leeward areas too. By late week into next weekend, model uncertainty increases considerably with the pattern, with the recent GFS suggesting a cold frontal passage while the latest ECMWF appears to be an outlier in weakening the pressure gradient and wrapping moisture over the state. Other than the ECMWF, most guidance suggests strengthening surface high pressure to the north of Hawaii once again by the weekend leading to breezy to windy trades. Tate