Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Mon Feb 14 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 15 2022 - 00Z Tue Feb 22 2022

An upper-level low centered just east of Hawaii early this
workweek is forecast to drift slowly westward atop the state and
persist but gradually weaken through much of this week. At the
surface, troughs in the vicinity of the state will keep trade
winds light to moderate over the next couple of days, before
trades increase around midweek and beyond as high pressure
strengthens well north. The upper low will serve to augment
instability, which could lead to increasing showers and possibly
thunderstorms over Hawaii. This will especially be true for the
latter part of the week when higher moisture anomalies are
expected. Common windward and mountain areas should receive the
bulk of the rainfall, but some could spill into leeward areas too.
By the weekend, model guidance varies with the details of the
pattern, but overall a weakness in the upper levels could lead to
additional trade wind showers.

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