Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 16 2022 - 00Z Wed Feb 23 2022

Fairly persistent upper-level troughing is forecast over Hawaii
through at least the weekend, with instances of closed lows
embedded within the trough. With this pattern aloft, instability
will be in place across the state, leading to showers and possibly
thunderstorms over Hawaii. Precipitable water anomalies are
expected to increase on Wednesday and through the end of the week,
another factor in increasing showers. Common windward and mountain
areas should receive the bulk of the rainfall, but some could
spill into leeward areas too. Current forecasts show the chances
for showers may decrease somewhat early next week as a front may
approach the islands and lessen the available moisture, but with
some trade wind showers still possible. Another increase in
moisture is possible by next Tuesday-Wednesday, but this is
uncertain at this point.

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