Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 17 2022 - 00Z Thu Feb 24 2022

An upper-level low will hover atop Hawaii over the next day or so
before weakening into a trough on Thursday, but troughing will
persist across the state through early next week as another upper
low develops to the north. Meanwhile, surface troughs will linger
across the state, providing convergence. This pattern will lead to
showers and possibly thunderstorms for Hawaii as instability will
be in place. The highest moisture anomalies are likely to remain
east of the state, perhaps making their way into the Big Island,
but moisture should still be sufficient for the showers to form
over the islands. This unsettled pattern will mainly favor common
windward and mountain areas to receive the bulk of the rain and
thunderstorms, but some could spill into leeward areas too. The
highest elevations of the Big Island can expect some wintry
precipitation. Though the upper pattern should flatten somewhat, a
generally showery pattern could continue into early next week,
with an increase in moisture possible around Monday and Tuesday.

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