Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 18 2022 - 00Z Fri Feb 25 2022

An upper-level trough is forecast to weaken but persist over
Hawaii through the weekend, reinforced by an upper low forming
north of the state. Meanwhile, surface troughs will linger across
the state, providing convergence and somewhat weaker trade winds.
This pattern could lead to showers and possibly thunderstorms for
Hawaii as instability will be in place. However, the highest
moisture anomalies are likely to remain east of the state, perhaps
making their way into the Big Island, but moisture could still be
sufficient for some showers to form over the islands. This
unsettled pattern will mainly favor common windward and mountain
areas to receive the bulk of the rain and thunderstorms, but some
could spill into leeward areas too. The highest elevations of the
Big Island can expect some wintry precipitation. By early next
week, a weak front may enter and linger over the northwestern
islands and reduce moisture there, but some moist inflow ahead of
the front for the southeastern islands is possible. The upper
level pattern should flatten somewhat into early-midweek and could
increase trade winds, but confidence in the details by that time
is low.

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