Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 313 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 Valid 00Z Sat Feb 19 2022 - 00Z Sat Feb 26 2022 Models and ensembles overall agree that an upper-level trough will weaken but persist over Hawaii through the weekend, reinforced by a closed upper low forming and passing to the north of the state. Meanwhile, surface troughing will linger across the state, providing convergence and weakened trade winds. This pattern should lead to showers and possibly thunderstorms across the state as instability will be in place. The highest moisture anomalies will be east of the state, but may slowly work into the Big Island in advance of a weak front entering the islands from the northwest early next week. Upper level troughing should be replaced over the state by eastward spreading upper ridging mid-later next week in a transition to a dry/limited windward terrain focusing shower pattern with returning trades as high pressure builds northeast of the islands. Schichtel