Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 248 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022 Valid 00Z Sat Feb 26 2022 - 00Z Sat Mar 05 2022 Guidance shows an east-west axis of high pressure just north of the state supporting moderate to brisk trades into Saturday and then somewhat weaker winds by Sunday as a front erodes the surface ridge. Primarily windward-focused showers through Saturday, and potentially some influenced by land/sea breezes as well on Sunday, should be fairly light given the upper ridge over the region and near to below normal precipitable water values. Trades may rebound during the first half of next week as a high passes by to the north. There is reasonable agreement that an upper trough should gradually amplify as it passes over the state around Wednesday-Thursday, with the associated moisture likely helping to increase rainfall to some degree. However the models offer mixed messages over how much if any surface troughing could develop with this feature, with the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET more pronounced than the GFS/CMC. Ensemble means say the CMC is the least likely solution overall. Most model runs have kept the heaviest rainfall away from the main islands but the 00Z GFS brushes the far northwestern islands and the old 12Z ECMWF got close. 18Z GFS/00Z ECMWF runs are lighter. The spread and variability of the operational models lead to low confidence for rainfall specifics thus far. Consensus shows a drier trend by next Friday as the upper trough axis moves far enough eastward. Rausch