Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 27 2022 - 00Z Sun Mar 06 2022

Latest models and means agree well for the overall pattern
evolution through the period, but with some uncertainty for
specifics midweek onward.  Moderate to brisk trades should trend
lighter by Sunday as a front approaches north of the state,
increasing the potential for some sea/land breeze influence on
showers versus a more windward focus Saturday.  Trades should
rebound somewhat Monday-Tuesday as high pressure behind the front
passes by to the north.  Expect rainfall through Tuesday to be on
the light side with precipitable water values at or below
climatology.  Upper ridging should also persist over the area into
Sunday before weakening/dropping southward.  Model/mean consensus
shows an amplifying upper trough passing through the state
Wednesday-Thursday, along with an increase in moisture/rainfall. 
A surface trough may develop over the area as well.  Models
continue to be inconsistent with how heavy the rainfall may be in
spite of reasonable agreement in the general pattern.  The 00Z GFS
and 12Z/25 ECMWF show potential for relatively higher totals over
or barely north of the state while the 18Z GFS/00Z ECMWF carry the
enhanced rainfall farther north--as does the 00Z UKMET.  Therefore
confidence in rainfall specifics continues to be fairly low. 
Guidance agrees that drier air will move in from the west on
Friday and Saturday.  Even if surface troughing weakens after
Thursday as the upper feature continues drifting east of the
state, trades may remain in the lighter half of the spectrum with
any surface ridge to the north of the area likely to be fairly
weak.

Rausch