Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Sun Feb 27 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 28 2022 - 00Z Mon Mar 07 2022

Fairly weak winds over the state on Sunday may rebound a little
during Monday-Tuesday as high pressure tracks north of the state,
with a stalled/dissipating front likely positioned between the
main islands and the high.  In this time frame expect showers to
be fairly light given below average precipitable water values,
with a combination of windward and sea breeze focus depending on
location.  Models and means are consistent in bringing an
amplifying upper trough across the region from west to east
Wednesday-Thursday, with some surface troughing or even embedded
low pressure disrupting the trade flow.  Guidance is finally more
agreeable that heaviest rainfall should stay well away from the
main islands.  There should still be a period of increasing
rainfall and some activity crossing the state could be locally
moderate to heavy, but west-to-east progression is likely be
sufficient to keep totals from getting too high.  Expect showers
to trend lighter Friday-Sunday as drier air moves in from the
west.  Low level winds should trend from having a northerly
component toward more easterly in response to movement of high
pressure northwest/north of the islands.  The weak nature of this
high decreases confidence in specifics though.

Rausch