Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 AM EST Mon Feb 28 2022 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 01 2022 - 00Z Tue Mar 08 2022 Latest guidance agrees fairly well for the general pattern evolution through the period but exhibits some differences for specifics. During the first half of the week rainfall should be light with precipitable water values generally below average. Expect a combination of windward and sea/land breeze focus for showers, with high pressure passing by to the north supporting some degree of trade flow but it may still be light enough to allow for some surface troughing. Consensus maintains the idea of an amplifying upper trough passing through the area around late Wednesday through Thursday. The upper dynamics and modest increase in moisture, along with a sharper surface trough, may lead to somewhat more rainfall but likely not to an extreme degree. Drier air will move in from the west late week through the weekend, with a corresponding decrease in rainfall. Another amplifying upper trough and leading front may approach the islands from the west next Monday, which could increase moisture/rainfall at that time. The most notable model differences involve exactly where an upper low may close off within the trough that reaches just east of the state by Friday, along with the corresponding surface pattern. The 00Z GFS/CMC develop this upper feature and surface low pressure closer to the main islands than other guidance to varying degrees, leading to stronger and more persistent northerly low level winds through the weekend. On the other hand the 00Z ECMWF kicks out the system faster than other guidance--resulting in a rapid return to more easterly trade flow before the front approaches next Monday. The ensemble means offer a reasonable intermediate solution to resolve the model discrepancies at this time. Rausch