Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Sun Mar 20 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 21 2022 - 00Z Mon Mar 28 2022

For the early part of the week, a broad upper trough over the
Pacific will extend into Hawaii and push a cold front near Kauai
and possibly across before stalling around Tuesday. Winds are
likely to lighten across the state ahead of the front, allowing
for a sea breeze pattern. As the front approaches, it will provide
a focus for rain as moisture/precipitable water values increase to
above average along the front. Widespread showers are forecast
around Monday-Wednesday especially for windward and north facing
slopes, but potentially reaching leeward areas as well in Kauai
and perhaps Oahu. Extreme rainfall totals and widespread flooding
are not currently expected. There is some question as to how much
enhanced moisture will linger through the latter part of the week.
But there is more confidence for increasingly breezy trades as a
reasonably strong surface high is expected to build north of
Hawaii around midweek. Showers particularly for windward areas are
possible with this flow regime and as a weak upper low near the
state could enhance instability.

Tate