Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 23 2022 - 00Z Wed Mar 30 2022

A cold front currently approaching Kauai will stall over the next
couple of days while slowly dissipating. The front will provide a
focus for rain as moisture/precipitable water values increase to
above average by 1-2 standard deviations for the northwestern
islands, and an upper-level trough/low aloft will provide some
instability. Widespread showers are likely to continue over the
next day or two, with heaviest totals for windward and north
facing slopes, but potentially reaching leeward areas as well
especially over Kauai. Widespread flooding is not expected, but
localized flooding could occur particularly if showers line up
over mountain areas. Increasingly breezy trade winds are likely to
form across the state as the workweek progresses as a reasonably
strong surface high is expected to build north of Hawaii. This
could be a relatively wet trade wind pattern as moisture may
linger even after the front dissipates. Showers particularly for
windward areas are possible with this flow regime and as a weak
upper low/trough remaining near the state could enhance
instability. By the weekend, generally quieter weather is likely
as ridging aloft moves in, but with perhaps an increase in
moisture by early next week.

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