Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 341 AM EDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 00Z Sun Apr 03 2022 - 00Z Sun Apr 10 2022 Most of the latest models and means are agreeable and consistent through the first half of next week, followed by recent GFS trends providing better clustering for the overall pattern aloft mid-late week but still with some question marks for details. Expect brisk trades through the weekend as high pressure passes by north of the state, followed by a weakening trend during the first half of the next work week as the high continues east and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Through the weekend, below-climatology precipitable water values should help to keep primarily windward-focused showers on the light to moderate side. A complex of upper level impulses ahead of a farther west upper low should lift moisture into the main islands from the south late Monday through Tuesday, leading to some increase of rainfall which may experience some land/sea breeze influence if trades become light enough. The enhanced moisture should get suppressed back to the south starting on Wednesday. Through the rest of the week the state may lie within a narrow band of relatively lower moisture between a stalled front to the north and the greater moisture to the south. Trades and windward shower focus should rebound by Thursday as another high tracks north of the area with a possible shift of the trades to some southeasterly component toward the end of the week. Through late week guidance maintains a degree of cyclonic flow aloft but with slowly rising heights. Latest GFS runs have trended away from the sharper trough that would have brought more moisture from the south into the area. However by Friday-Saturday the 00Z GFS and to some degree GEFS mean show lower heights than other models/means, leading to slightly lower surface pressures and weaker gradient over the islands. Rausch