Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 AM EDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 00Z Mon Apr 04 2022 - 00Z Mon Apr 11 2022 A fairly good consensus persists for the overall forecast through about Friday and then the GFS/GEFS diverge from most other guidance for depth of a lingering but weakening upper trough and resulting moisture over the state. Expect brisk trades with primarily windward/mountain shower focus (occasionally straying to some leeward locations) to start the week. Trades will weaken by Tuesday-Wednesday as Pacific high pressure tracks quickly to the east/northeast and a front approaches from the northwest, while one or more upper level impulses approach from the south and serve to increase moisture especially over southern areas. Thus somewhat higher rainfall totals will be possible along with a decrease in the terrain focus. Trades and windward shower focus should rebound by Thursday as another high passes by to the north. Winds will likely remain at least at moderate strength through the weekend, possibly turning a little more southeasterly as the high settles over the eastern Pacific and a slowly moving front remains well west of the area. From late week into the weekend the latest GFS runs and 00Z GEFS mean are somewhat deeper than other models/means with the upper trough that should linger over the area but steadily weaken. As a result the GFS/GEFS pull more moisture into the main islands from the south, in contrast to the majority (and yesterday's continuity) showing persistence of a narrow east-west axis of lower precipitable water values over the main islands, between the front that stalls to the north and greater deep moisture that stays to the south. Rausch