Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 07 2022 - 00Z Thu Apr 14 2022

Guidance is consistent in showing trades strengthening after early
Wednesday as high pressure passes by to the north, while
suppression of enhanced moisture initially over the Big Island
(with the passage of shortwave energy) will lead to lighter
windward/mountain-focused shower activity later this week. 
Models/means show weak upstream energy maintaining some degree of
weak upper troughing just west of the main islands into the
weekend but as in multiple previous days the GFS/GEFS mean are
deeper with this trough than other guidance.  Thus there is a
general consensus for some increase of precipitable water values
during the weekend but perhaps to a slightly lesser degree than in
the GFS.  Most solutions indicate somewhat drier air moving in
from the east during the first half of next week as the weak
trough energy moves on, tempering rainfall amounts a bit.  The
GFS/GEFS maintain lower heights aloft ahead of the larger scale
mean trough that stays well west of the state through next
Wednesday.  As was seen yesterday, the lower heights aloft in the
GFS/GEFS from the weekend onward (and slightly closer position of
the front stalling west of the area) ultimately lead to slightly
lower surface pressures over the state and potentially weaker and
more southeasterly winds.  With little change in the guidance
distribution compared to yesterday, would still maintain a
preference that tilts somewhat more to the ECMWF cluster. 

Rausch