Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 21 2022 - 00Z Thu Apr 28 2022

Guidance agrees that one surface high north of the state will
settle into the eastern Pacific late week into the weekend.  Then
another high to the west-northwest should become more dominant. 
Expect these highs to support moderate to brisk trades through the
middle of next week, with showers focused primarily over
windward/mountain areas but perhaps occasionally straying into
other locations.  The circulation around a weak upper low just
west of the main islands during the latter half of this week will
tend to keep precipitable water above climatology in that time
frame.  By the weekend and early next week, there is some spread
for how strong an upper ridge moving in from the east may be. 
Latest GFS runs are generally weakest with the ridge and strongest
with a peripheral shortwave that would increase precipitable water
values more than most other models/means around Sunday-Monday. 
Thus would favor leaning away from GFS specifics for that part of
the forecast.  Either way, there is reasonable consensus that
moisture should decrease gradually during the first half of next
week even while the upper ridge rapidly collapses.

Rausch