Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 26 2022 - 00Z Tue May 03 2022

Surface high pressure to the north of Hawaii will keep a breezy
easterly trade wind pattern in place through the early part of the
workweek. Windward and mountain/mauka showers are most common in
this wind regime, though a few leeward showers could spill over as
well. With moisture levels around average and a capping inversion
in place, rain amounts should be generally light. By around
midweek, a weakness in the subtropical ridge could lead to a
period of moderate trades, but the trades are likely to gradually
restrengthen by the weekend with surface high pressure to the
north. Meanwhile, modest upper troughing aloft looks to come into
Hawaii later this week, with some model guidance showing it
lasting through early next week. This would promote a weakening
capping inversion and allow for more vertical cloud development.
Additionally, models including the GEFS and EC ensemble means
indicate precipitable water values rising above normal in that
general timeframe. Thus a wetter trade wind pattern may be in
store by late this week into early next week, but this will
continue to be monitored.

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