Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 30 2022 - 00Z Sat May 07 2022

It remains the case that a slight weakness in the subtropical
ridge to the north of Hawaii should weaken trade winds somewhat in
the short term, but generally moderate to locally breezy trades
are still expected along with some windward and mountain showers.
High pressure will rebuild to the north and restrengthen trade
winds this weekend into next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing
aloft may linger into early next week, providing added instability
for showers.

Model guidance also continues to show a trend for increasing
precipitable water values, with a slight increase late this week
but general agreement for the most anomalous moisture levels
around Sunday-Tuesday. This seems to favor wetter trade wind
pattern, with more numerous showers especially for windward and
mauka locations, but with some potential to spill into leeward
areas.

Schichtel