Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Wed May 04 2022

Valid 00Z Thu May 05 2022 - 00Z Thu May 12 2022

Models and ensembles agree that moderate to locally breezy mean
trades will prevail into the weekend as high pressure bridges to
the north then northeast of the state. Meanwhile, slow moving
upper low/troughing over the state is acting to enhance
instability. This pattern favors locally enhanced showers over
windward and mountain areas, but with some spillage leeward.
Blended precipitable water satellite loops show deeper moisture
fueling flood advisories that remain issued for the Big Island.
There is also a threat for wintry weather for higher elevations of
Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea where there a Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect. Trades may weaken into a drier pattern from
later weekend into early-mid next week as ample closed upper
trough development over the mid-latitudes may drive a trailing
front to the northwest of the state. Overall, predictability and
continuity overall seem better than average for this forecast
period with the amplified 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF best supported by
ensembles next week, most consistent with increasingly blocky
mid-latitude flow.
 
Schichtel