Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Sun May 08 2022

Valid 00Z Mon May 09 2022 - 00Z Mon May 16 2022

Today's guidance offers good agreement and continuity for the
overall pattern through the period, with only modest differences
and/or changes with the forecast of moisture or trades.  The
ongoing drier trend should yield several days with precipitable
water values close to climatology after Sunday while trades will
promote windward/mountain focus of mostly light showers with only
sporadic cases of moisture straying into other locations.  Initial
high pressure northwest of the state and its reinforcement will
support fairly stable brisk trades through about
Wednesday-Thursday.  Then the guidance consensus shows enough
weakening of high pressure while a front stalls to the distant
north/northwest for trades to weaken somewhat by the weekend, with
more of a southeasterly component possible as well.  In varying
ways the 00Z ECMWF/GFS show a gradual increase of moisture next
weekend with the approach of weak and low-predictability shortwave
impulses from the west (GFS stronger than the ECMWF).  Thus far
the GEFS/ECMWF means are less enthusiastic about the possible
increase of moisture at that time.

Rausch