Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 00Z Wed May 11 2022 - 00Z Wed May 18 2022

Today's guidance has maintained reasonable continuity with the
forecast of trades.  High pressure to the northeast should be
sufficiently strong to support brisk winds through about Thursday,
followed by weaker high pressure and somewhat lighter trades late
week through the weekend.  The eastern Pacific high could get
reinforced a bit by early next week but trades may not respond too
noticeably as a central Pacific system comes into the picture to
the distant northwest (with the GFS joining other recent global
models/ensembles for the handling of this system).  This
approaching system may alter the shape of the surface pattern
enough to promote more of a southeasterly component for low level
winds early next week.  Meanwhile the operational models and
ensemble means all show a noticeable drier trend during the
period, with precipitable water values settling more solidly in
the below-climatology side of the spectrum.  Thus expect fairly
light windward/mountain-focused showers during the period, with
some question marks over whether trades may become light enough to
allow for some localized sea/land breeze influence during the
weekend and early next week.

Rausch