Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 00Z Tue May 17 2022 - 00Z Tue May 24 2022

The latest guidance continues to show good agreement on a central
Pacific upper trough with embedded low approaching Hawaii from the
northwest early this week. This system likely reaches its peak
amplitude around Wednesday before it starts to lift out back to
the northeast. Winds will shift to a more south/southeasterly
direction, helping to advect a significant increase of moisture
towards the state resulting in sea breeze induced showers across
typical leeward areas for most. More widespread and heavier
rainfall however is becoming increasingly likely across Kauai and
western islands assoicated with the deep troughing, though the
latest consensus suggests the heaviest rainfall should stay just
to the west of the main islands. By the end of this week and into
the weekend, the trough will lift out and upper riding once again
builds across the region with more typical breezy easterly trades
resuming.

Santorelli