MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EDT MON APR 07 2014

VALID APR 07/0000 UTC THRU APR 10/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND THE
ECMWF


...EASTERN U.S...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WRN GULF COAST ASSOCD
WITH AN AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY MON AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY TUES. THE 00Z NAM IS A TAD SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF
THE REMAINING MODELS AND EXCELLENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...WILL FAVOR A
NON-NAM CONSENSUS TO RESOLVE ANY REMAINING SMALLER SCALE DIFFS.


...SOUTHEAST...

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z GEM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL EAST COAST STORM THAT DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUES
AND WED. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH THIS ENERGY. THE 00Z GFS THOUGH IS THE STRONGEST
AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT AMPLIFICATION FOR A CLOSED MID
LVL LOW CENTER. WILL FAVOR THE MORE STRONGLY CLUSTERED NON-NCEP
SOLNS LED BY THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM FOR THE TIME
BEING.


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THURS...

PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE PROGRESSIVELY ESEWD TUES AND WED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY REGION. IT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURS. OVERALL THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE ENERGY AND FRONT. THERE
WILL BE A ROBUST SFC WAVE CROSSING S CNTRL CANADA...AND AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE 00Z UKMET IS A BIT OF A SLOW AND SRLY OUTLIER
WITH THE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL
FAVOR A NON-UKMET CONSENSUS ATTM.


...SOUTHERN STREAM LOW CLOSING OFF OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WITH THIS
FEATURE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO WILL PREFER A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE FOR THE SHORT RANGE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

ORRISON