MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1109 AM EST FRI JAN 03 2014 VALID JAN 03/1200 UTC THRU JAN 07/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: HIGH THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT HERE. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BURGEONING TROUGH MID-CONTINENT SURFACE LOW REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUN NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE SPURRING ON A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE REMAINS SPREAD WITH THE SURFACE LOW, AS THE 00Z UKMET LIES WEST OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD, AND THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF LIE WITHIN A SMALL NORTHEAST CLUSTER OF 00Z CANADIAN/GEFS MEMBERS. THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SUPPORTS THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS, WHICH ARE PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION. FOR SOME DISCUSSION OF THE RELATED ARCTIC COLD INFILTRATION, CONSULT OUR SHORT RANGE AND EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSIONS. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... ROTH