MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 122 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014 VALID JAN 22/0000 UTC THRU JAN 25/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING INTO JAMES BAY SAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT CLOSED LOW MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH NRN CA THU NIGHT SHORTWAVE/ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EAST THU ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM COAST TO COAST AT THE 500 HPA, 700 HPA, AND WITHIN THEIR SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... ROTH